Expert Bet

What is arbitrage betting?

Betting arbitrage, also known as surebets, or sports arbitraging, is a particular case of arbitrage arising in sports betting due to either bookmaker’s different opinions on event outcomes or plain errors. Arbitrage betting is a market phenomenon caused by bookmaker differentiation when offering odds on a certain match. Arbitrage betting is both fun and profitable.

An arbitrage opportunity means that you are able to bet on all possible outcomes of a certain event at odds that guarantee you profit regardless of the final outcome of that event. Therefore, such opportunities are widely known as “surebets” or “surewins”.

Most sports events have 2 possible outcomes (no draw result, e.g. baseball, basketball, tennis, hockey, football) or 3 possible outcomes (draw result possible, e.g. soccer). Betting on these outcomes is the most widely spread type of betting, known as “line betting”. Arbitrage opportunities occur when a bookmaker’s odds on a certain outcome of the event fluctuate compared to the rest of the market.

By placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit. As long as different Bookmakers are used for arbitrage betting the bookmakers do not have a problem with this. Each Bookmaker will still make profit due to their calculations.

In the bettors’ slang an arbitrage is often referred to as an “arb”; people who use arbitrage are called “arbers”. A typical arb is around 2%, often less, however 4%-5% are also normal and during some special events they might reach 20% or even more.

Why do arbitrages occur?

The main reason why arbitrage opportunities occur is bookmaker differentiation. An upcoming sports event typically has 3-4 leading bookmakers that are usually the first to offer odds. Usually, most other bookmakers who do not have the necessary expertise, knowledge or resources to closely follow the given championship wait for the leaders to establish the “market” before adjusting their own odds. There is always a third group of bookmakers who have their own views or try to be attractive by offering above-average odds, leading to arbitrage opportunities.

The second reason why arbitrages occur is bookmaker hedging. A bookmaker often seeks a hedge against a potential loss, thus creating an arbitrage.

Let us give you an illustrative example of how an arbitrage betting occurs:

Sport: Women Tennis WTA

Opponents: SZAVAY, AGNES vs. PENNETTA, FLAVIA

Court: Clay, Hungary Open

The market on the above game opens at 1.80 for the SZAVAY, AGNES versus 2.10 for PENNETTA, FLAVIA, leaving a 3% margin for the bookmaker.

As time passes, bookmaker A accumulates $15,000 on SZAVAY, AGNES and only $1,800 on PENNETTA, FLAVIA. Should SZAVAY, AGNES win, this bookmaker would lose $10,200 (payouts of $15,000 x 1.8 less the amounts wagered of $15,000 and less $1,800 wagered on PENNETTA, FLAVIA). The bookmaker’s goal, at this point, is to stop accumulating wagers on SZAVAY, AGNES by lowering the odds to 1.65 and at the same time become more attractive on PENNETTA, FLAVIA by raising the odds to 2.4. The rest of the market stays the same thus creating a surewin of 2.86% between bookmaker B who still keeps SZAVAY, AGNES at 1.8 and bookmaker A who has PENNETTA, FLAVIA at 2.4 odd.

Every bookmaker’s goal is to try to secure a margin on each event offered by adjusting their odds according to the desired margin. As people often wager disproportionately more on one of the outcomes (e.g. SZAVAY, AGNES to win) bookmakers try to hedge themselves by attracting wagers on the other outcome in order to reduce their net loss in case the public wins. This can be achieved by lowering the odds on SZAVAY, AGNES and raising the odds on PENNETTA, FLAVIA. As a result, the bookmaker remains intentionally “exposed” with respect to that outcome with the clear view that this is required for a successful hedge. As there is no reason for the rest of the market to change, the bookmaker just created an arbitrage opportunity.

Numerous such situations occur daily and are usually created by bookmakers on purpose, so they can hedge their exposure.

For any moneyline betting event (player A vs. player B) an arbitrage will be possible when [(OddA)x(OddB)]/(OddA+OddB) > 1.

For the above example (1.8 x 2.4)/(1.8+2.4)= 4.32/4.2 = 1.028 > 1

If you bet 571.43$@1.8 at Bookmaker A and 428.57$@2.4 at Bookmaker B, you will earn 1028 no matter who the winner is. The total staked wagered is 571.43+428.57 = 1000.

So this arb will bring you 28$ as sure profit.

Staking in arbitrage betting

Arbitrage Betting involves relatively large sums of money. Stakes are bigger than in normal betting while another variety, betting investment, means placing relatively small bets systematically on overvalued odds most of which will lose but some win thus making a profit.

There are many myths and superstitions surrounding roulette. And that is the case of every casino game. These stories might be fascinating, but not all are true. So you should be careful. Here you can find a list of the most famous roulette myths and superstitions.

Jagger’s (unbalanced) wheel

Since Jaggers discovered the unbalanced wheel many casino gamblers today are still looking out for the unbalanced wheel in order to make some fast cash. But the truth is the unbalanced roulette wheel no longer exists. Casino owners, too, have heard the story of Joseph Jaggers and are constantly monitoring their wheels. Before every table is open to the public the wheel is checked and rechecked to make sure it is perfectly balanced. If the casinos discover an unbalanced wheel, they immediately recalibrate it.

Better chance next time

Another myth is that as more spins occur, players have a better opportunity of hitting a number that has not been hit yet. This is absolutely false. Just because a number has not been hit yet, does not mean you have a better probability to hit the number on the next spin. The probability to hit a number every spin is the same 1 out of 38. Just because the number seven has not hit for hours, does not mean it will hit soon. This might be a good example of the gambler’s fallacy. Keep in mind that roulette is a game of chance and the odds are the same for every number with every spin of the wheel.

Dealer signature

This is a complex myth and one that is more theory based. Dealers running a roulette game get into a rhythm. The idea is that every spin is the same, meaning that when the dealer picks up the ball they spin it with the same force each time. This means that the ball should spin the same number of spins it did the time before and thus land the same number of slots away from the last spin. This is not saying that the same number will hit each time only that the ball will land a specific distance from the last hit. This idea is called a dealer signature. There is actually much debate about the truth behind this myth. Many people will encourage players to look for a dealer signature; if a player discovers one then theoretically that player has a huge advantage and should be able to win more often.

Superstitious Sayings

1. Never jump from table to table as you might leave your luck behind you.

2. After you see your favorite number hit three times, change it, and play another for at least five spins to get a change.

3. Don’t ever go gambling just because you are mad, this will only cause bad karma to follow you - go when you are happy, out for a good time, and you will build memories for a lifetime!

4. Be sure you don’t fight with your woman or man at the table as this can only bring you bad luck.

5. Choose numbers that feel lucky to you = everyone has a lucky number, go with it!

Here is one of the most useful tips a casino player can get. If you want to become a successful gambler, playing for free is essential and there are many benefits a player can get by taking advantage of this opportunity.

Playing for free before using real money is, maybe, the best thing you can do to enrich your gambling experience which you can turn into a more enjoyable and ultimately, successful activity.

Most reputable sites allow you to download their software and start out on any number of games playing for free. For this, you usually don’t even need to register and / or provide personal information.

No matter whether you are a casino gambler or just a passionate player of casino games, you should take advantage of this opportunity. What are your benefits?

The free play will help you to familiarize yourself with the software of that particular site.

You get the chance to really understand the rules and terminology of the particular game you are anticipating playing. You also have all the time in the world to do that, without the pressure from other players.

You can always try out several different games and decide which one may become your favorite or possesses the most potential for success.

In order to achieve some gambling experience and embrace a successful carrer as a gambler, you need to practice as much as you possibly can. Don’t forget that practice makes perfect!

You can think of this opportunity to play for free as of your own personal “training period” where you learn through trial and error and through practice.

Also, once you have started playing with and for real money, you can always return to the “no money” areas to perfect your gambling skills and and / or try out and learn new games.

Playing for free is probably one the best aspects of online casinos versus their brick and mortar (land-based) counterparts. You can have fun and keep the money in your pockets / accounts at the same time. There is no reason in missing such an opportunity!

On top of that, many online casinos offer “no deposit required” free bonuses which not only give you the chance to play for free, but also to win some real money.

A more subtle version of the fallacy is that an “interesting” (non-random looking) outcome is “unlikely” (for instance, that a sequence of “1,2,3,4,5,6″ in a lottery result is less likely than any other individual outcome). Even apart from the debate about what constitutes an “interesting” result, this can be seen as a version of the gambler’s fallacy because it is saying that a random event is less likely to occur if the result, taken in conjunction with recent events, will produce an “interesting” pattern.

As an example, the popular doubling strategy of the Martingale betting system (where a gambler starts with a bet of $1, and doubles their stake after each loss, until they win) is flawed. Situations like these are investigated in the mathematical theory of random walks. This and similar strategies either trade many small wins for a few huge losses (as in this case) or vice versa. With an infinite amount of working capital, one would come out ahead using this strategy; as it stands, one is better off betting a constant amount if only because it makes it easier to estimate how much one stands to lose in an hour or day of play.

In fact a fair gambling system is one on which the probability of some outcome remains exactly the same on each occasion: a roulette wheel has no memory.

It should be noticed that if a system is not known to be like this there may be no fallacy. If we are betting on the weather, or a horse, it may be quite reasonable to take a sequence of rainy days, or a sequence of wins, as increasing the chance of another.

Other examples

What is the probability of flipping 21 heads in a row, with a fair coin?

Answer: 1 in 2,097,152 = approximately 0.000000477.

What is the probability of doing it, given that you have already flipped 20 heads in a row?

Answer: 0.5.

Will you eventually come out ahead at roulette by betting double what you lost the previous time, and adding an extra amount? (Answer: given infinite time and funds, yes, you will eventually win on that color in a fair game. However, given finite time and even more finite funds, the chance exists that you will exhaust your money before winning. Regardless of the odds of a color losing (or winning) several times in a row, the probability of the ball landing on that color in a given spin is the number of that color that exist, divided by all possibilities. In the case of a Vegas roulette wheel, the chances of hitting red are 18/38, or ~.47, regardless of previous results.)

Are you more likely to win the lottery jackpot by choosing the same numbers every time or by choosing different numbers every time? (Answer: Either strategy is equally likely to win.)

Are you more or less likely to win the lottery jackpot by picking the numbers which won last week, or picking numbers at random? (Answer: Either strategy is equally likely to win, but if others choose the same numbers your payout is likely to be less.

A rational gambler might attempt to predict other players’ choices and then deliberately avoid these numbers.

Also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, the gambler’s fallacy is the false belief that the probability of an event in a random sequence is dependent on preceding events, its probability increasing with each successive occasion on which it fails to occur.

Thus if black has come up many times in succession at a roulette table, a false belief may develop that red is increasingly likely on each subsequent spin of the wheel, to even out the sequence in the long run; or if a mother gives birth to several girls in succession, she may come to believe that the probability of a boy is greater than 50% for her next baby.

For example, consider a series of 20 coin flips that have all landed with the “heads” side up. Under the gambler’s fallacy, a person might predict that the next coin flip is more likely to land with the “tails” side up.

This line of thinking represents an inaccurate understanding of probability because the likelihood of a fair coin turning up heads is always 50%. Each coin flip is an independent event, which means that any and all previous flips have no bearing on future flips.

The gambler’s fallacy gets its name from the fact that, where the random event is the throw of a die or the spin of a roulette wheel, gamblers will risk money on their belief in “a run of luck” or a mistaken understanding of “the law of averages”. It often arises because a similarity between random processes is mistakenly interpreted as a predictive relationship between them. For instance, two fair dice are similar in that they each have the same chances of yielding each number - but they are independent in that they do not actually influence one another.

The gambler’s fallacy often takes one of these forms:

A particular outcome of a random event is more likely to occur because it has happened recently (”run of good luck”);

A particular outcome is more likely to occur because it has not happened recently (”law of averages” or “it’s my turn now”).

Similarly,

A particular outcome is less likely to occur because it has happened recently (”law of averages” or “exhausted its luck”);

A particular outcome is less likely to occur because it has not happened recently (”run of bad luck”).

A betting strategy or betting system is a structured approach to gambling, with a predefined set of actions for bet sizing and timing. Betting strategies are typical in any activity in which money is risked but where the participant has little influence on events with their power limited to the sizing and timing their wagers, i.e. share trading, horse racing, sports picking, casino games etc. Betting strategies are based on some logical argument, whether it be based on probability or illusionary patterns, but all are at some level convincing to the particular betting strategist that it will increase their chance of success.

There are two key categories in which betting strategies fall; progression betting systems and staking systems.

Progression Betting Systems

Progression betting systems involve when and how much to increase or decrease bet sizes after a loss, win or other event. Progression betting systems take either a negative or positive approach, where negative progression betting systems involve increasing bet sizes after a loss whereas positive progression systems will generally increase bet sizes after a win. Negative progression betting systems can be viewed as loss recovery systems that generally can give the player a profit without having to win more than 50% of the time. Both negative and positive progression systems inherently increase a player’s bankroll volatility and so should not be viewed as systems that will eliminate risk entirely over the long run.

The Martingale

The Martingale is the classic progression betting system. In its negative form, it involves doubling your bet size after a loss. This continues until you win. The doubling of bet sizing means that when you do win, the size of the winning bet is greater than the total of previous losses. For example, we can have three straight losses where we have a negative martingale betting string of $5, $10 and $20 for a total loss $35. If we win the fourth negative martingale bet of $40, then we have a net profit of $5. After a winning bet, you drop your bet size back to the initial bet.

The positive martingale involves doubling your bet size after a win, you continue doubling as long as you win until you reach the table limit. After a loss, you reduce your bet size to the initial bet.

The Labouchere

The Labouchere System is progression betting strategy like the Martingale but does not require the gambler to risk his stake as quickly with dramatic double ups. The Labouchere System involves using a series of numbers in a line to determine the bet size, following a win or a loss. Typically, the player adds the numbers at the front and end of the line to determine the size of the next bet. When he wins, he crosses out the outside numbers and continues working on the smaller line. If he loses, then he adds his previous bet to the end of the line and continues to work on the longer line. This is a much more flexible progression betting system and there is much room for the player to design his initial line to his own playing preference.

D’Alembert

The D’Alembert is a progression betting system that involves increasing bet sizes during a winning streak and decreasing bet sizes on a losing streak. In the classic D’Alembert system, after a win the player increases their next bet by one unit and after a loss they reduce their next bet size by 1 unit.

Bet Spreading in Blackjack

Bet spreading in blackjack is an interesting example of betting strategy based on estimating the true odds by card counting. In essence, when you estimate that the house edge is getting higher you lower your bet sizing and when you estimate the house edge is negative then your increase your bet sizing. In fact, when the house edge is very negative you should increase your spread bet to around 20 times your small bet. The argument for bet spreading is that you can counter the fact that you are playing most of the time with a negative expected value by increasing the amount wagered when you have positive expected value to cover the time you are spending with the worst of it. The method of estimating the house edge is typically done via a card counting system.

Mobile gambling refers to gambling done on a remote wirelessly connected device. These devices can include wireless tablet PC’s, mobile phones and other non traditional mid-level networked computing devices. Some online casinos and online poker cardrooms offer mobile options.

Most mobile gambling services require a data connection to operate. The data connection is provided by the telecom provider for the region or country and may use data layer technologies such as GPRS, GSM Data, UMTS, and I-MODE. However, some services are available through an SMS text messaging interface.

The market is still at a nascent stage at the moment, as mobile operators and brands/ media owners are currently not in a position to create this market due to the potential reputational risk. This is mainly because of the uncertain nature of most countries’ in-decision towards regulation of remote gambling and online gambling. However, industry analysts such as CCA, Juniper Research and Screen Digest, or Gartner and Seymour Pierce all estimate a rapid growth in the sector and place the value of the market space at US $20 billion by 2010.

Mobile gambling has taken a giant leap in a very short space of time and the good news is that gambling enthusiasts are in for some exciting entertainment, no matter where they find themselves. Some companies however have begun developing and testing mobile platforms to position themselves early in the anticipated growth of the market.

The remote gaming market has been growing at a rate of 35% over the past 4 years and was estimated to be worth over $7 billion in 2004, the vast majority of which was internet-based. The mobile section of the gaming market only accounted for $5 million in 2004.

In fact after the internet gambling, mobile gambling is the most popular thing in the gambling industry. This trend of betting mobile is growing really fast and according to experts, Asia Pacific seems to be the most profusely growing market for mobile gambling. Asia-Pacific region is expected to contribute the largest share of total gross revenues with 39% of the market. Europe follows closely behind with a 37% market share, with the US making up the majority of the remainder.

To make this industry organized, mobile gambling summits are regularly being organized. These summits are a scope for the industry players to interact with each other and share their experiences and ideas so that they can exploit the potential of the mobile phone gambling scenario to its fullest extent.

Here are some impressive figures regarding the mobile gambling industry.

Telecoms analysts Juniper Research reveals that mobile lotteries will be the largest money-spinners, with gross revenues of nearly US $7.9 billion worldwide by 2009, followed by sports betting (US $6.9 billion) and casino-style gaming (US $4.5 billion).

Spread betting is any of various types of betting on the outcome of an event, where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the bet, rather than a simple “win or lose” outcome, which is known as money-line betting. A spread is a range of outcomes, and the bet is whether the outcome will be above or below the spread.

Spread betting market has known a significant growth in the UK in recent years, with the number of gamblers heading towards one million. As with all gambling, however, spread betting carries a high level of risk.

In the UK, spread betting is regulated by the Financial Services Authority rather than the Gambling Commission.

Purpose

The general purpose of spread betting is to create an active market for both sides of a wager, even if the outcome of an event may appear a priori to be biased towards one side or the other. In a sporting event, for example, a strong team may be pitted against a historically weaker team. Persons betting on the event normally would be likely to favor the better team, to such an extent that there would be very few, if any, betting on the underdog that is team perceived to be worse.

The use of a “point spread” evens out the market towards an equal number of participants on each side of the wager. This allows a bookmaker to make a market by accepting wagers on both sides of the spread. The bookmaker charges a commission and acts as the counterparty for each participant. As long as the number of participants on each side is roughly equal, the bookmaker is unconcerned with the actual outcome; profits instead come from the commissions.

Examples

Spread betting can be easily explained through examples.

We will use the market of ‘corners’ in a football match as this is easy to relate to. This market is based on the total number of corners accumulated by both sides in a game.

In a soccer match the bookmaker believes that 10 or 11 corners will occur, thus the spread will be set at 10-11.

Example

Match: Arsenal vs. Bolton

Spread for corners: 10-11.

Buy Example

A gambler believes there will be more than 11 corners and “buys” $20/point at 11.

Profit: You were right. The final number of corners was 15, i.e. 4 more than 11, the number of corners you bought at. You win 4 x $20 = $80 (tax free)

Loss: You were wrong. The final number of corners was 8, i.e. 3 less than 11, the number of corners you bought at. You lose 3 x $20 = $60

Sell Example

You believe there will be less than 11 corners. So, you sell $20/point at 10.

Profit: You were right. The final number of corners was 8, i.e. 2 less than 10, the number of corners you sold at. You win 2 x $20 = $40 (tax free)

Loss: You were wrong. The final number of corners was 15, i.e. 5 more than 10, the number of corners you sold at. You lose 5 x $20 = $100

You will notice that ‘buy’ transactions are made at the top end of the spread and ’sell’ transactions are made at the bottom end.

Spread Betting may seem complex, but it is relatively easy to pick up. Good luck!

In this article you will find the basics for sports gambling money lines.

Money lines are generally used by American bookmakers and are very common in baseball and in hockey, but you will also find them in both football and basketball listed in addition to the normal point spreads.

Sports gambling money lines indicate the odds (line) for a team to win a match outright without including a point spread or tie. When betting money lines you are betting on a team to win the game outright.

The main difference between a sports gambling money line and a sports gambling point spreads is that there are no points involved. If you team wins, you collect. You also don’t have to bet an amount that is equal to the money line. You bet whatever amount you want and the payoff is according to the money line odds that are set.

The easiest way to understand a money line is to think of it as an indication of the amount you need to bet to win $100 or the amount you will win.

Money lines are expressed with a negative number, say -110, or a positive number, say 110. A negative money line number indicates what you must wager to win $100, and a positive money line number indicates what you will win if you wager $100.

If you bet $110 on a team with a money line of -110, and they win, you will win $100 (plus return of your original $110 bet).

If you bet $100 on a team with a money line of 110, and they win, you will win $110 (plus return of the original $100 bet). Unlike point spread bets, the teams do not have to win by any particular number of points.

Now, you do not have to bet an amount equal to the money line number. You can bet more or less and the payoff simply becomes a proportional amount. For example, if you bet $11 on a money line of -110, and your bet wins, you will win $10. If you bet $50 on a money line of 110, and win, you will win $55.

Here is an example from the NFL:

New England -240

San Francisco 200

If you like the Patriots you would risk $240 dollars for every $100 you wanted to win. Conversely, if you liked the 49ers you would be getting $200 back for every $100 you wagered. The 40-dollar difference is the vigorish and is what keeps sportsbooks in business.

Here is an example from the NBA:

Boston 180

New Jersey -220

In this case if you liked the Nets you would be risking $220 for every $100 you wanted to win. If you liked the Celtics you would get back $180 for every $100 wagered if Boston won.

In conclusion, when a bettor bets on the moneyline, he or she is betting on the result of a game. They are betting on who will win a game, irrespective of the spread.

Green Bay Packers 130

New York Giants -145

In the above example, the minus (-) sign in front of the price means that the New York Giants are the favorites. The -145 means that the bettor will win $100 for every $145 bet. If the Giants win the game, a bettor with a $10 bet gets a return of $16.90 that is the original $10 stake, and $6.90 profit.

Many bookmakers offer several alternative bets, including the following:

Proposition bets. These are wagers made on a very specific outcome of a match. Examples include guessing the number of goals each team scores in a soccer match, betting whether a wide receiver in a football game will net more or less than a set amount of total yardage, or wagering that a baseball player on one team will accumulate more hits than another player on the opposing team.

Parlays. A parlay involves multiple bets (usually up to 12) and rewards successful bettors with a large payout. For example, a bettor could include four different wagers in a four-team parlay, whereby he is wagering that all four bets will win. If any of the four bets fails to cover, the bettor loses the parlay, but if all four bets win, the bettor receives a substantially higher payout (usually 10-1 in the case of a four-teamer) than if he made the four wagers separately.

Teasers. A teaser allows the bettor to combine his bets on two or more different games. The bettor can adjust the point spreads for the two games, but realizes a lower return on the bets in the event of a win.

Run line, puck line or goal line bets. These are wagers offered as alternatives to straight-up/moneyline prices in baseball, hockey or soccer, respectively. These bets feature a fixed point spread that offers a higher payout for the favorite and a lower one for the underdog. For example, the St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs baseball game might offer a run line of St. Louis -1.5 ( 100) and Chicago 1.5 (-120). A bettor taking St. Louis on the run line can avoid risking $200 to win $100 on the moneyline, but will collect only if the Cardinals win by 2 runs or more. Similarly, a run line wager on the Cubs will pay if Chicago loses by no more than a run, but it requires the bettor to risk $120 to win $100.

Future wagers. This bet predicts a future accomplishment by a team or player. One example is a bet that a certain NFL team will win the Super Bowl for the upcoming season. Odds for such a bet generally are expressed in a ratio of units paid to unit wagered. The team wagered upon might be 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, which means that the bet will pay 50 times the amount wagered if the team does so.