Jul 18 2008
Betting strategies: Progression betting systems
A betting strategy or betting system is a structured approach to gambling, with a predefined set of actions for bet sizing and timing. Betting strategies are typical in any activity in which money is risked but where the participant has little influence on events with their power limited to the sizing and timing their wagers, i.e. share trading, horse racing, sports picking, casino games etc. Betting strategies are based on some logical argument, whether it be based on probability or illusionary patterns, but all are at some level convincing to the particular betting strategist that it will increase their chance of success.
There are two key categories in which betting strategies fall; progression betting systems and staking systems.
Progression Betting Systems
Progression betting systems involve when and how much to increase or decrease bet sizes after a loss, win or other event. Progression betting systems take either a negative or positive approach, where negative progression betting systems involve increasing bet sizes after a loss whereas positive progression systems will generally increase bet sizes after a win. Negative progression betting systems can be viewed as loss recovery systems that generally can give the player a profit without having to win more than 50% of the time. Both negative and positive progression systems inherently increase a player’s bankroll volatility and so should not be viewed as systems that will eliminate risk entirely over the long run.
The Martingale
The Martingale is the classic progression betting system. In its negative form, it involves doubling your bet size after a loss. This continues until you win. The doubling of bet sizing means that when you do win, the size of the winning bet is greater than the total of previous losses. For example, we can have three straight losses where we have a negative martingale betting string of $5, $10 and $20 for a total loss $35. If we win the fourth negative martingale bet of $40, then we have a net profit of $5. After a winning bet, you drop your bet size back to the initial bet.
The positive martingale involves doubling your bet size after a win, you continue doubling as long as you win until you reach the table limit. After a loss, you reduce your bet size to the initial bet.
The Labouchere
The Labouchere System is progression betting strategy like the Martingale but does not require the gambler to risk his stake as quickly with dramatic double ups. The Labouchere System involves using a series of numbers in a line to determine the bet size, following a win or a loss. Typically, the player adds the numbers at the front and end of the line to determine the size of the next bet. When he wins, he crosses out the outside numbers and continues working on the smaller line. If he loses, then he adds his previous bet to the end of the line and continues to work on the longer line. This is a much more flexible progression betting system and there is much room for the player to design his initial line to his own playing preference.
D’Alembert
The D’Alembert is a progression betting system that involves increasing bet sizes during a winning streak and decreasing bet sizes on a losing streak. In the classic D’Alembert system, after a win the player increases their next bet by one unit and after a loss they reduce their next bet size by 1 unit.
Bet Spreading in Blackjack
Bet spreading in blackjack is an interesting example of betting strategy based on estimating the true odds by card counting. In essence, when you estimate that the house edge is getting higher you lower your bet sizing and when you estimate the house edge is negative then your increase your bet sizing. In fact, when the house edge is very negative you should increase your spread bet to around 20 times your small bet. The argument for bet spreading is that you can counter the fact that you are playing most of the time with a negative expected value by increasing the amount wagered when you have positive expected value to cover the time you are spending with the worst of it. The method of estimating the house edge is typically done via a card counting system.
