Expert Bet

Football betting: Stupid bets before transfer window closed

How stupid should a punter be in order to risk 100 units to win 3 units? Well, such punters do exist, to the delight of the bookmakers.

Some Betfair punters placed their bets on Robbie Keane to stay at Liverpool. The Republic of Ireland captain was backed as low as 1.03 to remain a Liverpool player and was still odds-on to remain a red on Monday morning.

But Robbie Keane’s sensational and unexpected return to Spurs has left some Betfair customers in a state of shock.

The Irish striker has been backed as low as 1.03 (risking £100 to win £3) to stay at Anfield on the exchange’s “Keane To Stay?” market on the transfer window.

Despite those market-low odds, the Irishman was backed for small amounts, on Betfair on January 22nd, with more than £500 matched on him at odds of 1.06 or less.

Keane was odds-on to remain at Liverpool as late as Tuesday morning, only going odds-against just after 10 am.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin said: “A good Christmas period for Keane had some Betfair customers taking it ‘as Red’ that he would still be a Liverpool player after the transfer window.”

Horseracing betting: Record win, record odds

On the other hand, there are also smart punters who know something about betting strategies. Betting on the underdogs might be considered a successful strategy that can bring punters some profit on the long term.

Forever’s Girl was successfully backed at huge odds of 1000 on Betfair.

Southwell runner Forever’s Girl overcame an awful start to land victory by a head, netting one punter £8,991 (minus commission!).

The latest addition to the select band of successful maximum-price winning punters on Betfair came in the 2.10 pm at Southwell on Tuesday, when Forever’s Girl was backed at odds of 1000.0 to be placed on the exchange.

Forever’s Girl won at the 10th attempt at Wolverhampton last month and did not run badly there in defeat next time.

Forever’s Girl had a hood on to go into the stalls for that five-furlong handicap but then, when Duran Fentiman reached up to whip it off her, she started bucking and rearing. As the stalls opened, Fentiman was still desperately tugging at the hood while his mount threw her head around. By the time the hood came off and the pair started their race, the others had had at least a 10-length start. She was laid at 1000.0 in-running to be placed.

One punter, a smart one “we might add” stepped in at that point and had £9 on Forever’s Girl at the maximum price.

And he was handsomely rewarded less than a minute later with a £8,991 return, minus commission.

Anyone would have thought that was £9 made but Forever’s Girl took off like a rocket and ran on strongly into third place behind the winner, Bold Rose.

And that was all it took for the punter to join one of the most exclusive clubs in racing - namely the one that consists of punters to have backed a 1000-1 winner on Betfair.

The British bookmakers have priced up betting on who will host the 2018 World Cup.

According to William Hill bookmakers, the World Cup in 2018 is likely to be hosted by England, William Hill’s red hot favourites.

England Favorites to host first Tournament in 22 Years

England can be backed at 11/8 with William Hill to be picked to host the World Cup. The rotation policy used by FIFA means that it will more than likely be held in Europe. As England have narrowly missed out on the 2006 World Cup which was eventually held in Germany, it is thought that England are capable of landing the World Cup.

Australia might be an interesting choice

There are joint second favourites, a joint bid from Portugal and Spain and a bid from Australia. Portugal and Spain looks a real possibility with the country likely to be held in Europe.

How about Australia’s possible bid? It would be a bit like when USA landed the World Cup in 2004. Punters can back both bids at 4/1 with William Hill.

Mexico set to host yet another World Cup

Other possible hosts that are prominent in the betting include Russia, who are 6/1 with William Hill and Mexico who are matched at 16/1 with William Hill.

Mexico hosted the World Cup in both 1970 and 1986 so they don’t look too likely, but Russia could be a good outside bet.

Here is a full list of proposition bets offered by William Hill on World Cup 2018 Host:

England 11/8
Australia 4/1
Spain/Portugal 4/1
Russia 6/1
Holland/Belgium 14/1
Mexico 16/1
USA 20/1
Japan 20/1
Qatar 33/1
Indonesia 50/1

Punters who enjoy betting long-shots can place their money on the absolute underdogs, Indonesia, matched at 50/1.

AC Milan are main favourites to win the UEFA Cup, heading the betting at a top 5/1 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Boylesports.

The Italians meet Werder Bremem in the last 32 and, if successful, will take on either Olympiacos or St Etienne.

Manchester City are second favourites to win the UEFA Cup after being drawn with FC Copenhagen in the last 32.

If City see off the Danes, they’ll play the winner of AaB Aalborg and Deportivo La Coruna in the last 16.

Mark Hughes’ men are as short as 7/1 with Sky Bet and a top 10s at Ladbrokes as the layers brace themselves for a flood of bets on the Manchester men if they spend big in the transfer window.

Aston Villa and Spurs, the other two English sides left in, are 2/1 with Stan James to meet in the last 16.

To do so, Villa must get past CSKA Moscow while Spurs will have to overcome Ukrainians Shakhtar Donetsk.

Villa seems to have the harder task as CSKA won this tournament in 2005 and were the only team in the group phase to win all four of their matches.

That’s reflected in the odds with Spurs at 16/1 and Villa being pushed out to 20s by Stan James.

However, Ladbrokes still seem to be pinning plenty of faith in Martin O’Neill’s men and have them as 10/1 joint second favorites alongside City and Valencia.

The last 32 ties will be played on February 18 and 19 with the return legs on February 26.

The final of the tournament takes place at Fenerbahce’s Sukru Saracoglu Stadium in Istanbul on May 20.

If you are new to sports gambling, you could pick a great time to start. The Super Bowl 2009 is less than two weeks away but Super bowl odds are heating up as we are getting closer to Super Bowl XLIII and Super bowl betting fans are getting ready for the action.

Super Bowl odds are always the most popular betting odds of the year. Super Bowl 2009 can be seen on NBC television this year which should increase the popularity since Al Michaels and John Madden are thought to be the best football announcers in the business.

The Super Bowl is by far the busiest event of the year, with estimates of $8 billion in cold, hard cash exchanging hands worldwide. A lot of this money will be wagered by people who are betting for the first and only time in 2009. Most of the people gambling on Super Bowl are not necessarily professional gamblers, but they are having fun, that’s for sure.

By picking up some of the basics of Super Bowl betting, you could increase your chances of getting paid while enhancing your appreciation of the NFL.

Super Bowl gambling bettors will look for the big payoff in Super Bowl odds and take the underdog on the money line. They will almost never take the favorite on the money line, instead choosing to lay the points in Super Bowl betting.

Gamblers will also look to bet the over in the Super Bowl.

If you take a close look at Super Bowl odds you should notice that the favorite, the over and the underdog on the money line will be the most popular wagers in terms of Super Bowl lines.

Now let’s take a look at the betting line.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as 7-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals at press time. The Cardinals got some early support, so the linesmakers have adjusted by lowering the juice on the Steelers from “110 to “105. The total is 47, with the over priced at “105.

These small line movements speak volumes about the Super Bowl. Early bets are often made by sharp handicappers, who always want to get their team at the best price they can. Some were able to get Arizona +7 at the standard “110. Others who waited had to pay “115, but that™s still a bargain compared to the possibility of the line moving to Arizona +6.5.

On the Pittsburgh side of the ledger, the betting public generally prefers to bet on the favorite, and the Steelers are one of the most publicly adored teams in the NFL. Square money tends to come in closer to game time, especially after the Friday workday is done. These market trends are important to follow; if you prefer the Steelers in this matchup, you might decide it’s in your best interests to wait and see if you can get them at “6.5 instead of “7.

People are motivated to bet on the Super Bowl because of the implied entertainment. The sports pages will be filled over the next two weeks with stories about the two teams and their players, mostly of the human-interest variety. But stories that matter to the game itself do hit the newswires, like when Oakland Raiders center Barrett Robbins was spotted drinking and despondent before the 2003 Super Bowl against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These are the kind of developing stories you want to follow and make use of this sort of information before you gamble as we get closer to Feb. 1.

When Real and Barca play at home in La Liga the majority of punters place huge amounts of money on the big two, Real Madrid and Barcelona.

The majority of money wagered on each week’s Primera Liga matches is centred around the big clubs: Real Madrid and Barcelona.

Many Betfair traders will get heavily stuck into their respective matches this coming weekend against Numancia and Deportivo.

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona are playing at home and both are fully expected to win.

Punters are backing the result, the correct score, the HT/FT or playing in the over/under market.

This coming weekend both sides play at home. Barcelona host Numancia on Saturday evening and their nearest rivals Real Madrid entertain Deportivo on Sunday.

The popular view be of these games would be that both sides will win and they’ll probably end up doing so by a couple of goals, and by keeping a clean sheet along the way with three or more goals being scored to the delight of the crowd enjoying a very entertaining match.

According to statistics, Barcelona have played 106 home matches at the Nou Camp. They have won 76, drawn 22 and lost just 8 times. Likewise, Real Madrid have played 106 matches at the Bernabeu, winning 77 times with 12 draws and 17 defeats.

That gives you an average of 76.5 wins from 106 games each or a 72% success rate.

In other words, the sides should be about 1.38 to win any given home match. In actual fact, this coming weekend Barcelona are 1.19 to win and Real Madrid are 1.43. These final result bets on home wins don’t really look like value bets to me.

Looking back over the past five seasons, the most popular results of home matches for Barcelona have been either 2-0 or 3-0. And that feels about right for a game against struggling Numancia.

With a 2-0 result happening in 10 of the 106 home games you’d be looking at true odds getting on for 11.00 for that score to be repeated whilst the 3-0 (found in 14 of 106 matches) should be nearer 7.50.

But the exchange offers a bit short at a fraction over 8.0 for a 2-0 home win and 3-0 appears to be a more tempting option at tempting odds of  12.0.

As for Real Madrid, they should win but it won’t necessarily be an easy home win. The 3-1 scoreline has most readily appeared for them over the past five seasons. Moreover, their last match against Osasuna ended in a 3-1 home win.

Appearing 14 times in their last 106 home games that’s another bet which comes in at true odds of 7.50. But Betfair offers the punters
the thick end of 13.00. So this might be considered a value bet if you decide to risk your money on the Galacticos!

You can still make money out of betting on the big two but following a gut-feeling bet might not be enough for the regular punter to win.

It takes some analyzing, proper use of information and good judgments to win big with the big two.

This Sunday was dominated by the travelling teams in the Premier League as it’s been a day for away wins with Chelsea, Tottenham and Middlesbrough all picking up three points on the road.

Gareth Southgate’s Middlesborough twice took the lead at Aston Villa and managed to hold on to it the second time round to shock the home faithful. Tuncay Sanli was the hero with a double, scoring the winner in the 88th minute, producing a major upset for the backers of the draw at 1.28.

Middlesbrough were backed at an in-running high odds of 17.0 while Villa traded at a low of 1.7.

Thus, the punters who believed in Boro and placed their bets on the away victory won some pretty considerable amounts of money.

Tottenham touched 9.0 after going behind to a Robinho effort. But a double from Darren Bent saw them pull off another come-from-behind victory.

From a high of 42.0, Spurs are now the 6.2 third favourites to win the league in betting without the Big Four.

As most of the punters expected, Chelsea kept it simple at Blackburn, where they obtained a comfortable win. Nicloas Anelka scored once in each half to land a 2-0 away win.

The Blues now trade at 1.9 to win the Premier League title

Andy Murray looks in good shape to claim the biggest title of his career to date at the Masters Cup in Shanghai over the next week. Murray is highly confident due to his performances in the second half of the season. Fixed odds in the market are 10/3 for Andy Murray to win tournament.

There are plenty of reasons to suggest that Murray can end his highly-impressive season with victory at the ATP’s season-ending event.

First, the Scot is in great form. He has won 25 of his last 28 matches, a run which includes the titles in Madrid and St Petersburg. Both were played on a similar indoor hardcourt to this

Secondly, he has little to fear against his rivals who have gathered here.

Also, Murray’s results against his opponents here are very good.

This tournament opens with a round-robin stage, the players being split into two groups of four with the top two progressing to the semi-finals.

In his group, Murray has been pooled with Roger Federer, Andy Roddick and Gilles Simon.

Murray holds a winning career record against all three. The statistics to matches played only on indoor hardcourts or those having taken place in 2008 also favour the Scot, who has won more ATP titles in 2008 (five) than anyone else in this field. He has won two of his three matches this year against Federer, the latest coming in Madrid just a few weeks ago. He also beat Simon in the Spanish capital (in the final) and leads him 2-0 this season.

He hasn’t met Roddick this year but does lead him 2-1 on indoor hard. Crucially, the American’s big serve has rarely troubled Murray, one of the best returners in the game.

Murray’s toughest group match seems to come against defending champion and tournament favourite Federer.

But the Swiss is not so invincible any more. He has lost 13 matches this year and the first time since 2003 his ‘lost’ column has made it to double digits.

Murray has a 3-2 winning record against Federer.

The Scot is 10/3 second favourite (behind 13/8 Federer) for the title.

Having all that in mind, betting on the Brittish number one to win the Masters Cup might be a good option for a regular punter.

The action gets under way in Shanghai at 0600 GMT on Sunday.

Lewis Hamilton drifted to odds of 16.0 on Betfair to be Formula One World Champion during the final lap of the Brazilian Grand Prix. Hamilton seems to have driven better under pressure as he kept his cool on the final few corners when he overtook Timo Glock and grabbed the fifth-place finish he needed to wrap up the title.

The McLaren driver was the 1.32 favourite to be crowned champion at the start of the race and around the 7.0 mark to win in Brazil, with his rival Felipe Massa a 4.0 chance to be crowned champion and just 1.85 to win on his home circuit.

Massa led the race for almost its entirety. Despite that, Hamilton traded at around the 1.08 mark to be champion as he looked certain to get the points he needed.

But the British driver from Stevenage was overtaken on the final lap by Glock. At that particular moment, odds drifted to 16.0 for Hamilton to be World Champion, with Massa trading at a low of 1.1 just before Hamilton overtook Glock to secure the points he was chasing.

The spectacular manner of Hamilton’s win has propelled him to main favourite for the BBC Sports Personality Of The Year award on Betfair where he is now just an 1.71 chance. His most likely rivals, Rebecca Adlington and Chris Hoy are matched at odds of 3.75 and 6.6 respectively.

Here is a betting summary of the juicy prices to be World Champion during the race:

At the off:

Hamilton - 1.32

Massa - 4.0

Midway through the race:

Hamilton - 1.08

Massa - 9.0

Three laps to go (18:43):

Hamilton - 1.28

Massa - 4.0

Final Lap (18:45), Hamilton is overtaken:

Hamilton - 3.0

Massa- 1.5

Midway through final lap, (18:46), Hamilton behind Glock:

Hamilton- 16.0

Massa - 1.1

As Hamilton crosses the line:

Hamilton - 1.32

Massa . 4.0

As a conclusion, live betting on Formula One during the final lap of the Brazilian Grand Prix could have brought you a considerable amount of money if you had placed a bet on the brave man from Stevenage…

Many bookmakers offer several alternative bets, including the following:

Proposition bets. These are wagers made on a very specific outcome of a match. Examples include guessing the number of goals each team scores in a soccer match, betting whether a wide receiver in a football game will net more or less than a set amount of total yardage, or wagering that a baseball player on one team will accumulate more hits than another player on the opposing team.

Parlays. A parlay involves multiple bets (usually up to 12) and rewards successful bettors with a large payout. For example, a bettor could include four different wagers in a four-team parlay, whereby he is wagering that all four bets will win. If any of the four bets fails to cover, the bettor loses the parlay, but if all four bets win, the bettor receives a substantially higher payout (usually 10-1 in the case of a four-teamer) than if he made the four wagers separately.

Teasers. A teaser allows the bettor to combine his bets on two or more different games. The bettor can adjust the point spreads for the two games, but realizes a lower return on the bets in the event of a win.

Run line, puck line or goal line bets. These are wagers offered as alternatives to straight-up/moneyline prices in baseball, hockey or soccer, respectively. These bets feature a fixed point spread that offers a higher payout for the favorite and a lower one for the underdog. For example, the St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs baseball game might offer a run line of St. Louis -1.5 ( 100) and Chicago 1.5 (-120). A bettor taking St. Louis on the run line can avoid risking $200 to win $100 on the moneyline, but will collect only if the Cardinals win by 2 runs or more. Similarly, a run line wager on the Cubs will pay if Chicago loses by no more than a run, but it requires the bettor to risk $120 to win $100.

Future wagers. This bet predicts a future accomplishment by a team or player. One example is a bet that a certain NFL team will win the Super Bowl for the upcoming season. Odds for such a bet generally are expressed in a ratio of units paid to unit wagered. The team wagered upon might be 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, which means that the bet will pay 50 times the amount wagered if the team does so.