Jan 20 2009
Spanish Football Betting: Betting on Real and Barca home matches
When Real and Barca play at home in La Liga the majority of punters place huge amounts of money on the big two, Real Madrid and Barcelona.
The majority of money wagered on each week’s Primera Liga matches is centred around the big clubs: Real Madrid and Barcelona.
Many Betfair traders will get heavily stuck into their respective matches this coming weekend against Numancia and Deportivo.
Both Real Madrid and Barcelona are playing at home and both are fully expected to win.
Punters are backing the result, the correct score, the HT/FT or playing in the over/under market.
This coming weekend both sides play at home. Barcelona host Numancia on Saturday evening and their nearest rivals Real Madrid entertain Deportivo on Sunday.
The popular view be of these games would be that both sides will win and they’ll probably end up doing so by a couple of goals, and by keeping a clean sheet along the way with three or more goals being scored to the delight of the crowd enjoying a very entertaining match.
According to statistics, Barcelona have played 106 home matches at the Nou Camp. They have won 76, drawn 22 and lost just 8 times. Likewise, Real Madrid have played 106 matches at the Bernabeu, winning 77 times with 12 draws and 17 defeats.
That gives you an average of 76.5 wins from 106 games each or a 72% success rate.
In other words, the sides should be about 1.38 to win any given home match. In actual fact, this coming weekend Barcelona are 1.19 to win and Real Madrid are 1.43. These final result bets on home wins don’t really look like value bets to me.
Looking back over the past five seasons, the most popular results of home matches for Barcelona have been either 2-0 or 3-0. And that feels about right for a game against struggling Numancia.
With a 2-0 result happening in 10 of the 106 home games you’d be looking at true odds getting on for 11.00 for that score to be repeated whilst the 3-0 (found in 14 of 106 matches) should be nearer 7.50.
But the exchange offers a bit short at a fraction over 8.0 for a 2-0 home win and 3-0 appears to be a more tempting option at tempting odds of 12.0.
As for Real Madrid, they should win but it won’t necessarily be an easy home win. The 3-1 scoreline has most readily appeared for them over the past five seasons. Moreover, their last match against Osasuna ended in a 3-1 home win.
Appearing 14 times in their last 106 home games that’s another bet which comes in at true odds of 7.50. But Betfair offers the punters
the thick end of 13.00. So this might be considered a value bet if you decide to risk your money on the Galacticos!
You can still make money out of betting on the big two but following a gut-feeling bet might not be enough for the regular punter to win.
It takes some analyzing, proper use of information and good judgments to win big with the big two.
