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Understanding Square Players’ Behavior

Some players seem to find the most ingenious ways to lose money. One of the most popular bad-bets involves teasers. A “square” teaser is where someone teases two teams in the same game. Consider the game Detroit (+2.5) at Cleveland (-2.5). If you tease both teams by six points, you have “Detroit +8.5 and Cleveland +3.5″. The problem is that these two plays are anti-correlated. If you believe that Detroit +8.5 will cover, Cleveland +3.5 is much less likely to cover. Where most two-team teasers will win at a rate close to 50%, by teasing two teams in the same game a player will reduce their hit rate down closer to 40%.What you’ll also find is that newer players will often sign-up at a book just for a bonus. They play for a while and then move onto another high juice recreational book to chase another bonus. But how much of these bonuses does a player really keep and how does the rollover work? If you post up $1,000 for a 10% deposit bonus worth $100, you will be credited with $1,100. The sports book will then expect you to “rollover” that deposit plus the amount of bonus a set number of times. If a book has a “3x rollover” requirement, you are expected to make $3,300 in bets (your deposit of $1,000 plus the $100 bonus, multiplied by 3) before you can earn your bonus. Until you do that, the bonus is “unearned” and withdrawing money typically forfeits that bonus. A traditional sports book can offer a bonus because they expect to win a lot of it back. If you made $50 bets on NFL sides until you met your rollover requirement (risking $55 to win $50), you would expect to win 33 wagers and lose another 33 wagers. You would be down the $5 vigorish on each of these 33 bets or $165 (33 * $5). Even after earning your $100 bonus you’re still down $65! New customers at Pinnacle Sports also receive a 10% sign-up bonus but if you made those same bets at Pinnacle, our reduced juice means you are only risking $52 to win $50. Making the same 66 bets, you would still be in profit on the bonus and paying just $66 (33 * $2) in juice instead of it costing you $165. Bonus chasing at books doesn’t make sense. While the bonus may help pay for the extra juice, not only are you out of pocket after fulfilling your rollover requirements at a traditional bookmaker, but do you really want the hassle of jumping from one book to the next? By playing at a reduced juice book like Pinnacle Sports you’ll receive a sign-up bonus that is actually worth something and our reduced juice lines offer up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other books, regardless of your rollover.   ( by Simon Noble from Pinnacle Sports Book )

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